Are Bonds Signaling a Real Estate Correction in San Diego?
The bond market is flashing warning signals—and if you’re watching the real estate sector closely, especially here in San Diego, it’s time to pay attention. While inflation, global policy shifts, and interest rate spikes continue to ripple through the economy, it’s the deteriorating bond market that may be the loudest red flag yet.
Fiscal Policy, Debt, and Real Estate: Why It Matters
Since COVID, government spending has skyrocketed. While some early stimulus efforts may have been justified, the continued fiscal expansion poses long-term risks. America’s debt servicing costs are reaching unsustainable levels. As bond investors demand higher yields due to perceived risk, we’re seeing 30-year fixed mortgage rates hover around 7%—a tough pill for real estate affordability.
The implications for real estate are serious: fewer qualified buyers, longer days on market, and likely price corrections if rates remain elevated. Without a return to fiscal responsibility, these economic headwinds may escalate into something that dwarfs the 2008 housing crisis.
San Diego Housing Market Update – May 2025
Here’s a snapshot of what’s happening locally:
| May 16-22 | Previous 4-Week Avg | % Change | May 9-15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Listings | 734 | 778 | -5.66% | 755 |
| New Pending Sales | 529 | 484 | +9.30% | 448 |
| New Sales | 461 | 437 | +5.43% | 405 |
| Active Inventory | 6,454 | 6,242 | +3.40% | 6,407 |
| 30-Year Fixed Rate | 7.02% | 6.89% | +1.92% | 6.92% |
Notably, inventory only increased by 47 units—marking the slowest growth of the year. While this is a minor point statistically, it could signal a shift in seller sentiment or seasonal listing behavior.
San Diego Market Outlook: What to Expect
- 3-Month Forecast (July 2025): Home values likely remain flat or slightly down 1-2%. Trend lines may start pointing downward.
- 6-Month Forecast (October 2025): Summer slowdown hits. Inventory climbs, and prices dip 3-5% below March/April highs.
- 12-Month Forecast (April 2026): If mortgage rates stay between 6.5%-7.5%, expect prices to be down 4-6% from their current levels.
Neighborhoods with a higher concentration of cash buyers will likely outperform due to their insulation from mortgage rate sensitivity.
Global Bond Market Tremors: A Macro Perspective
This week, Japan’s weak bond auction sent yields soaring—an early tremor in the larger debt ecosystem. The U.S. followed suit with a poorly received 20-year Treasury bond auction, hinting at investor hesitation to hold long-term U.S. debt without better yields or tighter spending.
This situation could spiral into what Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio describes as a debt death spiral—when borrowing becomes the only way to service debt and investors start fleeing en masse.
Congress just passed a new spending bill that—rather than restoring fiscal discipline—keeps spending at unsustainable levels. Should it pass the Senate in its current form, we could see mortgage rates increase even further as global confidence erodes.
Relevant National Headlines
- Worst April for U.S. existing home sales since 2009.
- All eyes on Friday’s PCE inflation report—crucial for future Fed action.
- Several upcoming Fed speeches could impact market sentiment and mortgage rates significantly.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in San Diego
If you’re buying or selling a home in downtown San Diego or the Marina District (92101), you need to stay informed. Whether you’re shopping Marina Park Condos, high-rises near Pacific Gate San Diego, or planning a sale in Bankers Hill, these macroeconomic changes can dramatically affect your strategy and pricing.
Want a real estate advisor who’s tracking the economic data that impacts your bottom line? Hire me here or explore Downtown San Diego condos for sale now.
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