Weekly San Diego Market Update January 27th, 2026
Weekly new pending sales picked up again.
Jan 16–22 vs prior weeks:
- New Listings: 624 (up ~11%)
- New Pending Sales: 466 (up ~25%)
- New Sales (Closings): 252 (down ~16%)
- Active Inventory: 4,757 (slightly down)
- 30-Year Fixed Rate: 6.19%
(Source: SDAR & Mortgage News Daily)
The key takeaway: pending sales are running about 15% higher than this same week last year. That’s not noise — that’s real buyer activity.
New listings and closed sales are roughly in line with recent weeks, but the pickup in pendings suggests buyers are quietly stepping back in.
Why Context Matters
A San Diego Union-Tribune article came out last week using November data and framing it as “breaking” news, suggesting buyers are still in wait-and-see mode.
This is exactly why I started writing this weekly update back in 2019.
By the time that article was published, weekly pending sales were already running about 15% higher than the same time last year — a very different story than what most people are seeing.
The same article also suggested sales volume was way off pace in November. But per SDAR data, closed sales were only about 50 transactions lower than November 2024.
That difference can easily be explained by one simple detail: November had one fewer business day to close escrows compared to the year before.
That context matters — and it was left out.
Unfortunately, this is often the only San Diego-specific reporting buyers and sellers see unless someone puts better data in front of them. That didn’t sit right with me then, and it still doesn’t today.
Other Local Notes
- Local officials continue looking for new ways to raise revenue — including a proposed vacation-home tax — instead of focusing first on controlling spending and using existing funds more efficiently.
Macro Market Round-Up
Interest rates moved higher last week.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended the week at 6.19%, up from 6.07%. Rates were higher earlier in the week and eased as markets settled. As of Monday, rates are already back down slightly to around 6.17%.
For perspective, we were in the low-7% range this time last year — so while rates aren’t great, they could be worse.
Most of the pressure isn’t coming from headlines or geopolitics — it’s coming from Japan’s bond market, which has been deteriorating quickly. Rising Japanese yields are pushing global yields higher and making markets uneasy.
Because global capital is interconnected, stress there doesn’t stay isolated. This is one of the wild cards that can slow or delay meaningful rate relief.
Early Warning Sign
Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is over 200% and at a breaking point.
The U.S. is already above 120% debt-to-GDP and rising quickly due to higher interest payments.
At some point, policy direction has to change — and sooner rather than later.
Other Macro Headlines
- National pending home sales: down 9.3% month over month, down 3% year over year
- Consumer sentiment improved in January
The Week Ahead
- The Federal Reserve meets this week and is expected to hold rates steady. Any market reaction will come from Jerome Powell’s press conference, though markets are already more focused on who comes next.
- Q4 earnings season ramps up, and forward guidance can influence both stocks and bonds.
- December PPI (producer inflation) data is released Friday and could impact rate expectations.
Contact Me
Contact Us Today!
With nearly two decades of experience helping buyers and sellers throughout San Diego, Wesley Guest understands that real estate decisions are rarely just about numbers — they’re about timing, lifestyle, and long-term peace of mind. From first-time condo buyers to seasoned sellers and relocations, his approach is focused on clarity, strategy, and protecting your interests. If you’d like help navigating your next move in San Diego, don’t hesitate to reach out and schedule a conversation below.
