San Diego Housing Market Update: November Trends & Holiday Demand
November’s data is in, and while we’re firmly in the holiday season, the San Diego housing market is not simply coasting into year-end. Several key data points suggest demand is holding up better than expected, particularly for well-priced homes.
San Diego Market Round-Up
Weekly pending sales continue to show relatively persistent demand through the holidays.
| Dec 5–11 | Prev 4-Week Avg | % Change | Nov 28–Dec 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Listings | 383 | 447 | -14.37% | 479 |
| New Pending Sales | 401 | 373 | 7.43% | 357 |
| New Sales | 407 | 374 | 8.82% | 288 |
| Active Inventory | 5,109 | 5,586 | -8.54% | 5,196 |
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.30% | 0.28% | 6.27% |
(Source: SDAR and Mortgage News Daily)
When declining new listings are combined with rising pending sales and falling total inventory, the market begins to feel like it is moving faster — excluding stale or overpriced listings.
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The percentage of new listings that went pending within their first week on the market exceeded 6% two weeks ago and climbed above 7% last week. For most of the year, that figure averaged closer to 4.5%.
In other words, demand pressure is increasing.
Compared to the same week last year, new pending sales are up 11.7%, while weekly new listings are essentially flat year over year.
On a monthly basis, the data continues to tell a familiar story: overall activity is trending lower seasonally, new listings are declining faster than new pending sales, and total inventory is contracting.
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Detached vs. Attached Homes: A Growing Divide
| Detached Nov 2025 | Detached Nov 2024 | % Change | Attached Nov 2025 | Attached Nov 2024 | % Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Listings | 1,108 | 1,317 | -15.87% | 715 | 792 | -9.72% |
| New Pending | 1,010 | 1,069 | -5.52% | 527 | 597 | -11.73% |
| New Sales | 1,009 | 1,130 | -10.71% | 577 | 613 | -5.87% |
| Median Price | $1,050,000 | $1,019,500 | 2.99% | $660,000 | $670,000 | -1.49% |
| % of Original List Price | 97.10% | 97.90% | -0.82% | 96.50% | 97.80% | -1.33% |
| Inventory | 2,667 | 2,838 | -6.03% | 2,016 | 1,851 | 8.91% |
| Months of Supply | 2.2 | 2.3 | -4.35% | 3.0 | 2.7 | 11.11% |
| Average Days on Market | 43 | 36 | 19.44% | 49 | 37 | 32.43% |
| Affordability Index | 40 | 39 | 2.56% | 64 | 60 | 6.67% |
(Source: SDAR and FRED Economic Data)
The takeaway is clear: total inventory is still higher year over year, but nearly all of that increase is concentrated in attached housing. Detached homes remain supply-constrained, while attached homes are dealing with higher inventory, softer demand, longer marketing times, and modest price declines.
Pricing & Value Trends
I continue to focus on median price per square foot as the most reliable value metric, particularly during periods of lower sales volume.
On a monthly basis, median price per square foot increased about 0.5% compared to October. On an annual basis, however, pricing is still down roughly 3% when combining detached and attached properties.
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Despite the recent bump, values remain about 5% below the May 2025 peak and roughly 6% below the overall peak reached in May 2024.
Detached median pricing rebounded to $1,050,000, up nearly 4% month over month and about 3% year over year. Attached median pricing held flat month over month at $660,000 but remains down roughly 1.5% year over year.
Mortgage Rates & the Macro Backdrop
Mortgage rates ended the week slightly higher, with the 30-year fixed rate around 6.32%. Despite recent Federal Reserve rate cuts, mortgage rates remain range-bound due to pressure from long-term bond yields.
For rates to move meaningfully lower, we would need to see clear signs of labor market deterioration and continued progress on inflation based on hard economic data, not surveys or sentiment.
This coming week is packed with economic reports, including jobs data, retail sales, inflation readings, and global central bank decisions — all of which have the potential to move rates.
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Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Outlook
3-month outlook (February 2026): Values are likely to trend modestly higher as the early stages of the 2026 buying season begin.
6-month outlook (May 2026): A seasonal peak in pricing is likely around May. Values could be 2–3% higher than current levels but still slightly below prior cycle highs.
12-month outlook (November 2026): Home values are likely to be modestly lower year over year. Affordability remains the primary constraint, with employment trends and broader economic conditions playing an increasingly important role.
Local Housing Notes
Locally, San Diego continues to push policies encouraging higher-density housing, including townhomes and small-lot development. While these initiatives may help long-term supply, their impact on near-term affordability will likely be limited.
Final Thoughts
The San Diego housing market is not moving in one direction across the board. Detached homes remain relatively resilient due to limited supply, while attached homes continue to work through excess inventory. As we move toward year-end, pricing discipline and strategy matter more than timing.
Contact Us Today!
With nearly two decades of experience helping buyers and sellers throughout San Diego, Wesley Guest understands that real estate decisions are rarely just about numbers — they’re about timing, lifestyle, and long-term peace of mind. From first-time condo buyers to seasoned sellers and relocations, his approach is focused on clarity, strategy, and protecting your interests. If you’d like help navigating your next move in San Diego, don’t hesitate to reach out and schedule a conversation below.
