San Diego Real Estate Market Update – What You Need to Know Right Now (Spring 2025)
If you’ve been watching the San Diego housing market closely, you’ve probably noticed some shifts happening beneath the surface. While we’re not in a full-on slowdown yet, data from the past few weeks points to important trends that buyers, sellers, and investors need to understand.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s really going on and how it could affect your next real estate move in San Diego.
Inventory Is Up, But Buyer Activity Is Slowing
For the week of April 18–24, active inventory in San Diego surpassed 6,000 homes — landing at 6,090 units. That’s up 8.86% from the prior 4-week average, signaling that sellers are continuing to list.
- New listings: 765 (up 1.46%)
- Pending sales: 421 (down 14.21%)
- Closed sales: 449 (up 3.34%)
While more homes are hitting the market, buyer activity is declining, with pending sales dropping significantly. That’s a key indicator of reduced demand, possibly due to mortgage rate volatility or overall buyer uncertainty.
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Interest Rates Are Still a Major Factor
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended the week at 6.84%, which is consistent with the trend we’ve seen over the past several months. While not spiking, rates remain at levels that can reduce affordability for many buyers.
Purchase mortgage applications are down nationally, indicating that this is not just a San Diego trend — it’s happening across the country.
If you’re planning to buy, locking in a rate sooner rather than later may still be a smart move, especially if rates continue hovering between 6.5%–7.5%.
What to Expect Over the Next 3, 6, and 12 Months
Based on current trends, here’s a general forecast for the San Diego market:
- Next 3 months (June 2025): Prices likely remain flat, within ±1–2% of current values. However, the trend line will likely start pointing downward.
- Next 6 months (September 2025): Expect a seasonal slowdown. With increased inventory and longer market times, prices could fall 3–5% from their spring peaks.
- Next 12 months (March 2026): If mortgage rates stay in the 6.5%–7.5% range, home values may decline 4–6% year-over-year.
Note: Neighborhoods with a high number of cash buyers may fare better than others, since they’re less rate-sensitive.
Bigger Picture: Macro Trends You Shouldn’t Ignore
It’s not just local data shaping the San Diego housing market — broader economic trends are playing a role too.
Here’s what’s happening on the national and global fronts:
- Mortgage rates ticked downward slightly after a volatile few weeks.
- The stock and bond markets both bounced back somewhat last week.
- California’s economy is now the 4th largest in the world, surpassing Japan.
- San Diego living space is shrinking, with the average unit now just 827 sq. ft.
Looking ahead, we’re expecting a flurry of new data this week that could impact rates and market sentiment:
- Consumer confidence
- Job openings and private employment
- Q1 GDP report
- March PCE inflation gauge
- April U.S. jobs report
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What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in San Diego
If you’re a buyer, you may have more choices now than you’ve had in years — but time is still of the essence. Rates could move quickly, and desirable homes in hot neighborhoods are still seeing competition.
If you’re a seller, pricing right is more important than ever. Homes that are priced accurately for today’s shifting market are the ones still selling fast.
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Final Thoughts
The San Diego real estate market is changing, but not crashing. With inventory rising and buyer demand softening, we’re entering a new chapter — one where strategy, timing, and professional guidance matter more than ever.
Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on market shifts, staying informed is the best way to position yourself for success.
Contact Us Today!
With nearly two decades of experience helping buyers and sellers throughout San Diego, Wesley Guest understands that real estate decisions are rarely just about numbers — they’re about timing, lifestyle, and long-term peace of mind. From first-time condo buyers to seasoned sellers and relocations, his approach is focused on clarity, strategy, and protecting your interests. If you’d like help navigating your next move in San Diego, don’t hesitate to reach out and schedule a conversation below.
