San Diego Housing Sales are Shifting!
The San Diego real estate market continues to show subtle but important shifts. While last week looked nearly identical to the one before, there are signs of movement worth watching closely. If you’re a buyer or seller trying to time your move, here’s the latest San Diego housing market forecast 2025 with numbers, trends, and expert outlooks.
San Diego Housing Market Snapshot
| Metric | Aug 8–14 | Previous 4-Week Avg | % Change | Aug 1–7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Listings | 725 | 737 | -1.59% | 744 |
| New Pending Sales | 497 | 485 | +2.42% | 477 |
| New Sales | 422 | 420 | +0.60% | 423 |
| Active Inventory | 6,964 | 7,055 | -1.28% | 6,991 |
| 30-Year Fixed Mortgage | 6.58% | 6.71% | -1.86% | 6.57% |
(Source: SDAR & Mortgage News Daily)
Key Takeaways from San Diego Housing Sales
- Pending sales ticked up slightly as lower mortgage rates improved buyer activity.
- Inventory dipped again, though there are many stale listings requiring price adjustments.
- Price reductions are increasing:
- Detached homes: 34.12% of listings (higher than 30.83% in Aug 2022).
- Attached homes: 38.1% of listings (vs. 27.2% in Aug 2022) and rising faster.
The trend suggests slower declines than 2022, but headwinds like affordability, insurance costs for HOAs, and cheaper rental options are weighing down condo and attached housing values. Buyers are keeping a close eye on San Diego home prices and the average home price San Diego as affordability continues to be a challenge.
Expert Outlook – San Diego Housing Market Forecast 2025
How does the rest of 2025 and into 2026 look? Here’s the forecast assuming mortgage rates remain between 6.5%–7.5%.
- 3-Month Outlook (October 2025): Trend lines point lower, and values will continue softening through year-end.
- 6-Month Outlook (January 2026): Marketing time may average 50 days. Home values could be down 4–6% from the May 2025 peak (already 3% lower as of July).
- 12-Month Outlook (July 2026): Expect prices to remain 5–7% lower year-over-year unless mortgage rates fall substantially below 6.5%.
Note: Value estimates use median price per square foot to account for data anomalies.
Macro Market Round-Up
Nationally, mortgage rates ended last week at 6.58% (barely changed from 6.57% the week prior). Economic data remains mixed:
- Consumer Inflation (CPI): In line with expectations.
- Producer Inflation (PPI): Much hotter than expected, raising inflation concerns.
- Retail Sales: Solid growth, showing consumers are still spending.
Bond markets held steady, reflecting confidence in the current rate range. For rates to improve meaningfully, softer retail sales and jobs data will be needed.
The Week Ahead
The Federal Reserve’s annual Economic Symposium is this week. Investors will watch closely for clues on future monetary policy. On the corporate side, major retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target are reporting earnings — all potential market movers.
What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
The San Diego real estate market is in a delicate balance: modestly improving demand from lower rates versus growing pressure from price reductions and affordability constraints. If you’re considering making a move, now is the time to be strategic. Explore all your options with our curated Downtown San Diego condos for sale — a great way to understand what’s available in today’s market.
Working with an experienced San Diego real estate team can make all the difference. Schedule a meeting with me and my team today to discuss your San Diego real estate goals and next steps.
Contact Us Today!
With nearly two decades of experience helping buyers and sellers throughout San Diego, Wesley Guest understands that real estate decisions are rarely just about numbers — they’re about timing, lifestyle, and long-term peace of mind. From first-time condo buyers to seasoned sellers and relocations, his approach is focused on clarity, strategy, and protecting your interests. If you’d like help navigating your next move in San Diego, don’t hesitate to reach out and schedule a conversation below.
