San Diego Real Estate Market Round-Up
The week before last looks more and more like it was just a blip in the trend lines. The broader story remains intact: new listings continue to slide, buyer demand is steady, and active inventory is trending lower.
Weekly Data Snapshot (Sep 19–25 vs. Sep 12–18)
- New Listings: 610 (↓ 8.85% from 669, and down from 729 prior week)
- New Pending Sales: 481 (↑ 3.39% from 465, and up from 435 prior week)
- New Sales: 440 (↑ 3.10% from 427, and up from 421 prior week)
- Active Inventory: 6,558 (↓ 2.14% from 6,702, and down from 6,679 prior week)
- 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.38% (slightly up from 6.35% prior week)
Source: SDAR & Mortgage News Daily
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Inventory & Demand Trends
New pendings bounced back into the average weekly range we’ve seen since early August, while new listings fell below recent norms. That mix (steady demand + fewer fresh listings) keeps pulling active inventory lower.
Important nuance: a meaningful slice of the “decline” in active listings is from homes being pulled off the market after missing the seller’s price target. Some of that shadow inventory could return later, so the inventory drop looks stronger on paper than it really is.
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Wesley’s Take
With mortgage rates now sitting meaningfully below 6.5% (and looking sustainable given labor conditions), the forward picture is shifting. We’re already down 4.4% from the 2025 peak—faster than expected. I still anticipate declines into year-end, but at a slower pace that could flatten if rates keep easing.
- 3-Month Outlook (Nov 2025): Depreciation should slow from ~1.45% per month (since June) to ~0.5% per month. Buyers still hold leverage, so no reversal yet.
- 6-Month Outlook (Feb 2026): If rates hold or drop further, we could see a modest Q1 recovery. Stronger than Q1 2025, not as strong as 2019 or 2023.
- 12-Month Outlook (Aug 2026): A path exists for values to be flat or slightly higher if rates push into the high-5s before inventory rebuilds. But affordability and labor risks remain.
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Macro Market Round-Up
Mortgage rates ended the week at 6.38%, just above the prior week’s 6.35%. Given stronger jobless claims, an upward GDP revision, and inflation still hot, that tiny move higher is actually a relief.
The most rate-sensitive datapoint was jobless claims surprising to the downside. The case for lower rates leans on labor weakness; if the job market stays resilient, rates can drift higher again. Next week brings a slate of jobs data, so be ready for swings.
Zooming out further shows that—even post-pandemic—today’s rates remain historically low compared to long-term norms:
We all got a little spoiled by sub-5% mortgages in the post-GFC era. Could we revisit those levels? Maybe—but the economic backdrop that would justify that isn’t exactly something to root for. I’ll take the low-6% range over that trade-off.
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Bottom Line
Inventory is thinning, rates are easing, and demand is consistent. Prices will likely soften into Q4, but at a slower, more measured pace. Your best move depends on your neighborhood and property type—let’s run the numbers and build a plan.
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Contact Us Today!
With nearly two decades of experience helping buyers and sellers throughout San Diego, Wesley Guest understands that real estate decisions are rarely just about numbers — they’re about timing, lifestyle, and long-term peace of mind. From first-time condo buyers to seasoned sellers and relocations, his approach is focused on clarity, strategy, and protecting your interests. If you’d like help navigating your next move in San Diego, don’t hesitate to reach out and schedule a conversation below.
